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Libey Incorporated
Economic Outlook
Secrets of the Catalog Master
Vol. MMV No. 1
January 2005
(Continued--page 2)
The January 2005 Regional Economic Outlook
The end of the year sort of wimped out. True, some of the fourth quarter economic reports were positive, but the momentum just wasn't there at the end. Yet, most of the business-to-business direct marketers made their numbers and turned in what will likely be a good year. The consumer catalogers struggled a bit.
When we look at all of the government and Federal Reserve data, the first quarter of 2005 projects fair growth, perhaps a bit constrained to the 1.5 to 2 percent level, but not meeting our recent projection of 3 to 4 percent growth. While we remain positive for the First Quarter 2005, our enthusiasm is muted somewhat, even though all twelve regions continue as improved. But the loss of velocity and momentum are signaling a need for some conservatism in mailing. Therefore, we are shifting some recommendations from aggressive to normal until we see how the first month or so of 2005 shakes out.
Region
One (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT)
Region Two (NY, NJ, CT, PR, VI)
Region Three (PA, NJ, DE)
Region Four (OH, KY, PA, WV)
Region Five (KY, MD, TN, VA, NC, SC)
Region Six (GA, AL, FL, LA, MS, TN)
Region Seven (IL, IN, MI, WI, IA)
Region Eight (MO, IL, IN, KY, TN, LA, AR)
Region Nine (MN, WI, ND, SD, MT, MI)
Region Ten (KS, CO, MO, NE, NM, OK, WY)
Region Eleven (TX, LA, NM)
Region Twelve (CA, UT, AZ, NM, OR, WA)
Mixed to Slower
None
The First Quarter 2005 Circulation Outlook and
Recommendation
Synopsis
The short-term economic outlook for the catalog industry remains positive through the first quarter of 2005, perhaps somewhat slowed. The intermediate-term outlook is positive for the first-half 2005, and the long-term outlook through 2006 remains positive. Our outlook for growth in the first quarter of 2005 is revised to 2 to 3 percent. Slowed velocity in the economic conditions causes some changes to recommended mailing volumes.
Nation At A Glance
The detailed economic conditions for each state have been integrated into the following recommendations. Changes to circulation recommendations through the First Quarter 2005 are highlighted in bold. A number changes are recommended for January-March, all shifts from Increase to Normal mailing
