Secrets of the Catalog Master
Vol. MMVI No. 3 May 2006
(Continued--page 2)
The Second Quarter 2006 Regional Economic Outlook
The second quarter of 2006 is progressing well. Economic growth is strong and all regions are performing positively and reporting strength in almost all sectors. The only negative is high gas and oil costs which have the potential of becoming nasty and creating a drag on stability.
Among catalogers, the first four months of 2006 have been healthy and projections are being met or exceeded in both business-to-business and business-to-consumer operations. Again, the cautionary note is energy costs and the potential for creating a slowdown in the summer months and beyond. Prospecting and online growth are both receiving solid investment and most catalog and multichannel companies are actively growing their new customer files and aggressively marketing to their existing customer base.
This has become a four-year plus expansion where the only slowdowns have been seen as a result of natural events (severe weather). In the past thirty years, the U.S. has not had such a prolonged growth performance, nor has it been experienced in nearly all regions of the nations. Regardless of oil shocks or the effects of military action in several hotspots, the economy continues to produce even as the national economic status deteriorates. At some point, this has to slow down, but it doesn’t appear to be anytime soon.
I admit to a deep concern over the price of oil. I have clear memory of the 1970s and rationing, as well as interest rates at twenty percent and inflation at sixteen percent and higher. Should that occur, the economy may not withstand the pressures.
Signs of Regional Stability or Status Quo
Region One (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT)
Region Two (NY, NJ, CT, PR, VI)
Region Three (PA, NJ, DE)
Region Four (OH, KY, PA, WV)
Region Five (KY, MD, TN, VA, NC, SC)
Region Six (GA, AL, FL, LA, MS, TN)
Region Seven (IL, IN, MI, WI, IA)
Region Eight (MO, IL, IN, KY, TN, LA, AR)
Region Nine (MN, WI, ND, SD, MT, MI)
Region Ten (KS, CO, MO, NE, NM, OK, WY)
Region Eleven (TX, LA, NM)
Region Twelve (CA, UT, AZ, NM, OR, WA)
Slower (Individual states)
Louisiana
Mississippi
The Second Quarter 2006 Circulation and Prospecting Outlook and Recommendations
and Recommendations
Synopsis
The short-term economic outlook for the catalog industry continues to be robust and very positive positive. The intermediate-term outlook remains positive for the second half of 2006, and the long-term outlook through 2007 remains positive.
Continue Prospecting
Continue with moderately aggressive growth strategies for circulation and prospecting plans and force new customer development to sustain the positive momentum. There continues to be nothing (except oil prices) in the economic outlook for the second and potentially third quarters of 2006 that justifies any cuts in prospecting or reductions in customer circulation. Keep mailing, emailing, telephoning and searching.
Nation At A Glance
There have been several minor changes to the state-by-state circulation strategies, all increases in circulation pressure.
