Secrets of the Catalog Master
Vol. MMVI No. 5 September-October 2006
(Continued--page 2)
The Fourth Quarter 2006 Regional Economic Outlook
The fourth quarter of 2006, I believe, may have some slowing due to a combination of fundamental economic influences (the slowing of the housing market engine) and psychological influences (growing dissatisfactions). However, economic growth continues in all regions and that must be factored into the last quarter mailing plans to customers and prospects. We would also draw your attention to the six-month decline in consumer confidence. This is a predictive indicator and one that has validity. It has been telling us that the nation’s consumption outlook has weakened steadily since February. The indicator often portends economic conditions as much as six months in advance. It’s a red flag.
The U.S. economy, however, has continued its expansion through August. Fortunately, even the various energy industry landmines have not resulted in further price escalations; although gasoline is still prohibitively expensive for most individuals and businesses.
Economic growth remains slowed in five out of the twelve regions, but again not enough to move those regions to a slow outlook. None of the twelve regions have dipped enough in economic performance to be moved to the Slower column; all continue relatively flat to slight progress.
For multichannel marketers, the third quarter of 2006 appears to be relatively positive with increases in sales and marketing performance pretty much across the board in business-to-business and in consumer cataloging.
Hiring in the industry is quite active. At the beginning of September, despite some reports of slowing in hiring, Libey Incorporated was conducting searches for 10 senior multichannel direct marketing executives, more than at any other time in 2006 or in recent memory. We have to conclude that you are investing in your businesses and, apparently, in prospecting, products, markets and in management talent. That indicates a positive outlook for 2007 is building and bodes well for a continuation of the positive outlook for direct marketing in general.
Just a side note: We see a continuing double-digit increase in web channel marketing again at the conclusion of 2006. There appears to be little slowing in the growth of the channel or in the conversion to online sales. All projections that we see are for this to continue apace in 2007. As the web channel morphs to include video, technology and speed enhancements, this is not a time to rest on your accomplishments from the past several years; indeed, this is likely the time to invest aggressively in staying current in the web channel.
Signs of Regional Stability or Status Quo
Region One (CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT)
Region Two (NY, NJ, CT, PR, VI)
Region Three (PA, NJ, DE)
Region Four (OH, KY, PA, WV)
Region Five (KY, MD, TN, VA, NC, SC)
Region Six (GA, AL, FL, LA, MS, TN)
Region Seven (IL, IN, MI, WI, IA)
Region Eight (MO, IL, IN, KY, TN, LA, AR)
Region Nine (MN, WI, ND, SD, MT, MI)
Region Ten (KS, CO, MO, NE, NM, OK, WY)
Region Eleven (TX, LA, NM)
Region Twelve (CA, UT, AZ, NM, OR, WA)
Slower (Individual states)
Louisiana
Mississippi
The Fourth Quarter 2006 Circulation and Prospecting Outlook and Recommendations
and Recommendations
Synopsis
The short-term economic outlook for the catalog industry continues positive. The intermediate-term outlook remains positive for the fourth quarter of 2006, and the long-term outlook through 2007 remains positive.
Continue Prospecting
Continue with normal strategies for circulation and prospecting plans. There are no substantive economic reasons for any cuts in prospecting or reductions in customer circulation. Keep mailing, emailing, telephoning and searching at normal to increased levels.
Nation At A Glance
Continue with normal strategies for circulation and prospecting plans. There are no substantive economic reasons for any cuts in prospecting or reductions in customer circulation. Keep mailing, emailing, telephoning and searching at normal to increased levels.
